FIRST REVISION POPULATION FOR CAMBODIA 1998-2020

1- Summary

This projection exercise is not a soothsayer or fortuneteller exercise, nor is it a scientific recipe to foresee the future. The purpose here is not to predict the population size of the next two decades, but to calculate the size that it will have if certain assumptions regarding mortality, fertility and migration occur in the future. In this sense, a population projection is more of a prospective exercise than a prediction. What is important here is not to guess the exact number of children or workers in the future. What is relevant is to know that, if the demographic components behave as proposed here, the number of schools will have to increase by so and so many, and the economy will have to generate x or y more number of jobs than it is currently generating.

The results of these projections can be summarized into 5 main points:

1. Population will continue to grow in spite of fertility decline. Actually, the present rate of growth will increase up to the end of the next decade, when it will show a moderate decline. The main reason is the population momentum created in Cambodia because of past high fertility. This means that there is the potential for a rapid and substantial population growth during the next decade.

2.The most important population pressure on the socioeconomic system will be from the working age population. In other words, the demand for jobs will increase substantially in the next two decades.

3. A decline in fertility will not significantly affect the overall pace of population growth, but it will substantially influence the age composition of the population. If the recent fertility decline continues, the expansion of the young population will be relatively moderate as compared with constant or higher fertility rates in the future. In that case, a respite from the pressure from the growth of working age population will begin by the end of the next decade. A more rapid and substantial fertility decline will make such a respite more significant.

4.The expected population composition is particularly suitable for a process of economic growth. It suggests an important demographic bonus. The proportion of the young population compared to the overall population will diminish and the proportion of the elderly will not increase very much. Important resources, which would otherwise be diverted to social expenses, can be directed to improve the infrastructure of the country.

5. Demographic trends in the different provinces are quite diverse. Fertility will probably continue declining in all provinces, but at different paces and starting from different levels. Migration may also vary across the board. Although less important in terms of the future population size, mortality rates and patterns will also display variations.

A projection exercise can never be final. There are more projections to be conducted. First, it would be highly beneficial to project the population by districts. Considering the lack of information about the past, this exercise would be very difficult, though it is possible. Second, a lot would be gained from conducting projections with different scenarios according to differing impact levels of HIV/AIDS. In the present projection, as well as in the original one, this factor was not included. Third, it will be necessary to project the population according the new rural-urban classification. This was not done in this projection, because it was considered more appropriate to wait for the new official classification.

2-Tables

Table 1 : Projection of life expectancy at birth Cambodia, 1998 to 2020

	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
Male	53.11	53.71	54.40	55.09	55.79	56.48	57.18	57.87	58.57	59.26	59.96	60.65	61.35	62.04	62.73	63.43	64.12	64.82	65.51	66.21	66.90	67.60	68.35
Female	59.21	59.89	60.60	61.31	62.01	62.72	63.43	64.14	64.85	65.55	66.26	66.97	67.68	68.38	69.09	69.80	70.50	71.21	71.92	72.63	73.34	74.04	74.83

Table 2 : Projection of total fertility rates (TFR), Cambodia, 1998 to 2020

	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
TFR	3.99	3.94	3.88	3.83	3.78	3.73	3.68	3.63	3.58	3.53	3.49	3.44	3.40	3.35	3.31	3.27	3.23	3.18	3.15	3.11	3.07	3.03	3.00

Table 3 : Projection and annual rates of growth according to three variants or hypotheses regarding fertility, Cambodia, 1998-2020

Year	Variants or hypothesis
	Population			Annual rate growth
	High	Medium	Low	High	Medium	Low
1998	12,132,172	12,132,172	12,132,172	-	-	-
1999	12,352,639	12,351,382	12,349,283	1.8	1.79	1.77
2000	12,578,625	12,573,580	12,565,603	1.81	1.78	1.74
2001	12,814,443	12,802,982	12,785,172	1.86	1.81	1.73
2002	13,061,366	13,040,668	13,008,794	1.91	1.84	1.73
2003	13,319,542	13,287,053	13,237,026	1.96	1.87	1.74
2004	13,589,477	13,542,410	13,469,809	2.01	1.9	1.74
2005	13,872,069	13,806,923	13,707,514	2.06	1.93	1.75
2006	14,167,067	14,080,653	13,950,402	2.1	1.96	1.76
2007	14,474,644	14,363,519	14,198,102	2.15	1.99	1.76
2008	14,795,432	14,655,950	14,450,774	2.19	2.02	1.76
2009	15,129,478	14,957,752	14,708,552	2.23	2.04	1.77
2010	15,476,013	15,268,588	14,970,847	2.26	2.06	1.77
2011	15,834,614	15,587,830	15,237,510	2.29	2.07	1.77
2012	16,205,275	15,914,723	15,508,277	2.31	2.08	1.76
2013	16,586,776	16,248,639	15,782,531	2.33	2.08	1.75
2014	16,978,744	16,589,047	16,060,314	2.34	2.07	1.74
2015	17,381,067	16,935,564	16,341,719	2.34	2.07	1.74
2016	17,793,587	17,288,565	16,626,252	2.35	2.06	1.73
2017	18,215,571	17,647,275	16,913,234	2.34	2.05	1.71
2018	18,642,859	18,007,183	17,200,096	2.32	2.02	1.68
2019	19,072,959	18,365,862	17,484,641	2.28	1.97	1.64
2020	19,506,263	18,724,315	17,767,644	2.25	1.93	1.61

Table 4 : Projected population by provinces, 1998-2020, Cambodia ( Cont' )

Province	Year
Province	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008
Banteay Meanchey	638,892	657,322	675,363	693,805	712,795	732,310	752,392	773,092	794,410	816,382	839,037
Battambang	887,507	901,565	915,876	930,726	946,332	962,672	979,823	997,840	1,016,734	1,036,523	1,057,263
Kampong Cham	1,691,798	1,712,448	1,734,143	1,756,657	1,780,286	1,804,956	1,830,722	1,857,500	1,885,335	1,914,152	1,944,031
Kampong Chhnang	440,144	449,604	459,206	469,120	479,457	490,220	501,455	513,179	525,411	538,163	551,472
Kampong Speu	630,782	643,865	657,005	670,487	684,476	698,949	713,967	729,552	745,730	762,500	779,910
Kampong Thom	599,695	610,559	621,504	632,752	644,429	656,474	668,895	681,692	694,857	708,398	722,338
Kampot	557,322	562,647	568,501	574,600	581,072	587,868	595,036	602,624	610,642	619,088	627,974
Kandal	1,129,876	1,144,426	1,159,181	1,174,438	1,190,445	1,207,096	1,224,433	1,242,506	1,261,297	1,280,781	1,300,974
Koh Kong	138,309	146,288	153,544	160,892	168,366	175,947	183,648	191,468	199,413	207,474	215,674
Kratie	276,706	284,428	292,206	300,139	308,287	316,606	325,097	333,761	342,582	351,549	360,691
Mondul Kiri	34,406	35,492	36,594	37,708	38,854	40,016	41,201	42,412	43,648	44,913	46,210
Phnom Penh	1,039,607	1,077,286	1,114,479	1,152,572	1,191,668	1,231,630	1,272,386	1,313,851	1,355,934	1,398,555	1,441,692
Preah Vihear	126,389	129,844	133,372	136,988	140,711	144,521	148,407	152,378	156,427	160,551	164,764
Prey Veng	995,211	1,000,220	1,006,270	1,012,811	1,019,936	1,027,518	1,035,672	1,044,376	1,053,642	1,063,494	1,073,917
Pursat	390,004	394,576	399,290	404,266	409,621	415,354	421,528	428,173	435,313	442,973	451,141
Ratanak Kiri	99,703	102,506	105,344	108,260	111,290	114,426	117,664	121,028	124,509	128,107	131,835
Siemreap	734,126	750,818	767,768	785,204	803,289	821,964	841,268	861,214	881,803	903,030	924,923
Sihanoukville	163,303	169,395	175,591	181,926	188,447	195,130	201,981	209,005	216,219	223,608	231,184
Stung Treng	85,602	88,068	90,562	93,552	95,721	98,396	101,136	103,933	106,790	109,705	112,684
Svay Rieng	503,080	507,402	512,093	516,882	521,872	527,053	532,478	538,180	544,174	550,466	557,058
Takeo	833,381	841,642	850,397	859,531	869,157	879,220	889,777	900,880	912,543	924,758	937,556
Oddar Meanchey	82,345	84,413	86,511	88,647	90,843	93,077	95,410	97,803	100,278	102,835	105,488
Kep	30,123	31,132	32,168	33,221	34,311	35,434	36,592	37,786	39,011	40,280	41,589
Pailin	23,861	25,436	26,612	27,798	29,003	30,216	31,442	32,690	33,951	35,234	36,545
Cambodia	12,132,172	12,351,382	12,573,580	12,802,982	13,040,668	13,287,053	13,542,410	13,806,923	14,080,653	14,363,519	14,655,950

Table 4 : Projected population by provinces, 1998-2020, Cambodia ( Cont' )

Province	Year
Province	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
Banteay Meanchey	862,314	886,198	910,687	935,770	961,417	987,529	1,014,087	1,041,128	1,068,646	1,096,376	1,124,204	1,152,152
Battambang	1,078,923	1,101,461	1,124,767	1,148,765	1,173,414	1,198,694	1,224,557	1,250,932	1,277,747	1,304,689	1,331,565	1,358,445
Kampong Cham	1,974,976	2,006,924	2,039,776	2,073,383	2,107,597	2,142,407	2,177,825	2,213,888	2,250,432	2,286,867	2,322,945	2,358,926
Kampong Chhnang	565,337	579,779	594,742	610,207	626,172	642,623	659,549	676,953	694,820	712,958	731,268	749,791
Kampong Speu	797,956	816,615	835,823	855,569	875,799	896,468	917,552	939,064	960,928	982,827	1,004,657	1,026,473
Kampong Thom	736,642	751,298	766,298	781,637	797,271	813,138	829,218	845,563	862,160	878,736	895,138	911,441
Kampot	637,303	647,056	657,180	667,649	678,415	689,443	700,737	712,313	724,121	735,936	747,602	759,162
Kandal	1,321,841	1,343,407	1,365,608	1,388,360	1,411,617	1,435,326	1,459,431	1,483,957	1,508,852	1,533,720	1,558,305	1,582,712
Koh Kong	224,016	232,495	241,136	249,928	258,880	267,994	277,270	286,718	296,345	306,118	316,005	326,002
Kratie	370,010	379,494	389,137	398,940	408,902	419,025	429,310	439,781	450,428	461,149	471,904	482,725
Mondul Kiri	47,543	48,913	50,327	51,785	53,290	54,843	56,455	58,140	59,888	61,687	63,521	65,394
Phnom Penh	1,485,291	1,529,301	1,573,657	1,618,306	1,663,254	1,708,453	1,753,840	1,799,452	1,845,320	1,891,298	1,937,221	1,983,104
Preah Vihear	169,073	173,486	178,005	182,634	187,385	192,245	197,221	202,331	207,572	212,893	218,244	223,613
Prey Veng	1,084,872	1,096,298	1,108,141	1,120,306	1,132,755	1,145,482	1,158,392	1,171,505	1,184,774	1,197,863	1,210,643	1,223,193
Pursat	459,822	469,014	478,690	488,787	499,269	510,104	521,251	532,714	544,421	556,191	567,925	579,665
Ratanak Kiri	135,695	139,693	143,837	148,106	152,513	157,065	161,773	166,651	171,695	176,842	182,067	187,401
Siemreap	947,487	970,666	994,436	1,018,776	1,043,657	1,069,044	1,094,897	1,121,272	1,148,130	1,175,173	1,202,258	1,229,432
Sihanoukville	238,954	246,900	255,027	263,325	271,791	280,420	289,205	298,160	307,275	316,507	325,806	335,186
Stung Treng	115,739	118,866	122,069	125,347	128,700	132,129	135,637	139,228	142,906	146,623	150,362	154,126
Svay Rieng	563,958	571,141	578,612	586,318	594,183	602,190	610,340	618,625	626,974	635,206	643,226	651,073
Takeo	950,957	964,947	979,456	994,453	1,009,871	1,025,659	1,041,841	1,058,440	1,075,364	1,092,257	1,108,901	1,125,349
Oddar Meanchey	108,232	111,079	114,028	117,075	120,215	123,448	126,761	130,166	133,661	137,185	140,712	144,242
Kep	42,928	44,306	45,736	47,206	48,710	50,249	51,813	53,409	55,035	56,680	58,337	60,002
Pailin	37,883	39,251	40,655	42,091	43,562	45,069	46,602	48,175	49,781	51,402	53,046	54,706
Cambodia	14,957,752	15,268,588	15,587,830	15,914,723	16,248,639	16,589,047	16,935,564	17,288,565	17,647,275	18,007,183	18,365,862	18,724,315